Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92f5…13e5 sports 659 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,873 (-8%) realized −$5,771 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%263W / 395L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$246
14 days−$246
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$5,164
crypto 2% −$433
other 1% −$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -60.0% -63.8% 20% 20% -59.1%
≤30d 5 -60.0% -63.8% 20% 20% -59.1%
≤90d 285 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 39% -20.5%
all 658 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 40% -16.8%
10% -28.6% 39% -24.8%
15% -35.5% 38% -32.1%
20% -41.8% 36% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$105 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,771
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses263 / 395
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions1
Markets (closed)658 / 659
History coverage158d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner MIBR Academy 53¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 378 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $67 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $102 +$101 +100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $27 −$27 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C May 30 $163 −$156 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $26 +$20 +78%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $6 +$4 +76%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 1 Winner May 29 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 29 $50 −$50 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 4 Winner May 29 $102 −$4 -3%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 Winner May 29 $97 −$95 -98%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner May 29 $71 +$154 +216%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 29 $61 +$94 +153%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 3 Winner May 29 $69 −$67 -98%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 2 Winner May 29 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 29 $111 +$51 +46%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $86 +$73 +85%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $64 −$63 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 2 Winner May 29 $63 −$62 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $63 −$62 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $56 −$55 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $34 −$33 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $70 +$20 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $20 +$63 +307%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $71 +$23 +32%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $71 +$23 +32%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $80 +$27 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $63 +$22 +36%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $53 +$56 +105%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner May 29 $49 +$85 +174%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 28 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 4 Winner May 28 $31 +$52 +171%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 3 Winner May 28 $15 +$61 +395%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 2 Winner May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 1 Winner May 28 $30 +$35 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 63¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 53¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 49¢ $102 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 26¢ $27 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $56 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 4h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 54¢ $81 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 41¢ $36 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 39¢ $7 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 47¢ $2 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 47¢ $5 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 37¢ $5 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 49¢ $8 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Mentality Monster 45¢ $2 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 45¢ $9 30d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C BUY Yangon Galacticos 41¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 30d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $25 31d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $25 31d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $6 31d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $102 31d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 4 Winner SELL Conviction 50¢ $98 31d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 4 Winner BUY Conviction 51¢ $102 31d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 Winner BUY CCG Esports 38¢ $20 31d
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner SELL Bubliki 100¢ $226 31d
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner BUY Bubliki 31¢ $71 31d
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P SELL Young Ninjas 100¢ $155 31d
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 3 Winner BUY Ronaldo Team 34¢ $69 31d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 Winner BUY CCG Esports 39¢ $76 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 1836 history records