Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92f9…9a0c weather 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%30W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% $0
weather 7% +$1
other 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 30 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses30 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage188d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C on April 20? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 24°C or below on April 22? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 26? Mar 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26? Mar 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 16? Mar 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 14? Mar 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 11? Mar 11 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 9? Mar 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Feb 19 $49 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025? Jan 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S Jan 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 21 $5,000 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Jan 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 21 $145 $0 +0%
Will Nike say "Black Friday" during earnings call? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 +35%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 19 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $44 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 24°C or below on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $37 59d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 62d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $19 86d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $39 87d
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $46 96d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $48 98d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 11? BUY No 99¢ $36 101d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $35 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 102d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $14 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 112d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $7 121d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 124d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $42 133d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $49 140d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 157d
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S BUY No 100¢ $5 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $145 172d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $17 174d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $4,978 174d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 174d
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $4 178d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 179d
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 179d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.99 · official $97.99 (match) · 66 history records