Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9300…b42a
weather · 897 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$147
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses648 / 232
Open positions17
Markets (closed)880 / 897
History coverage36d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 880 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$18
14 days+$9
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 95¢ 94¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 97¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 91¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 93¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 14? No 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? No 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13? No 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 9? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? No 91¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 19? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 1? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 86¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 88¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 98¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? SELL No 88¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $7 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 92¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $7 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +1.7% -7.9% 79% 6% -7.9%
≤30d 695 +0.7% -8.9% 78% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 880 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 8% -9.6%
all 880 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 8% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.31 · official $147.31 (match) · 1854 history records