Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
93 0x9301…388c weather 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$490 (+4%) realized +$526 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate85%277W / 50L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$204
14 days+$386
30 days+$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +8.2% -2.1% 85% 23% -5.9%
≤30d 200 +6.9% -3.3% 86% 22% -5.4%
≤90d 327 +5.6% -4.5% 85% 19% -5.6%
all 327 +5.6% -4.5% 85% 19% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 19% -5.6%
10% -13.6% 5% -14.6%
15% -21.9% 3% -22.8%
20% -29.6% 2% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$526
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses277 / 50
Open positions13
Markets (closed)327 / 340
History coverage78d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? No 93¢ 99¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? No 89¢ 93¢ $98 $102 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? No 97¢ 92¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? No 91¢ 94¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? No 89¢ 80¢ $101 $91 −$10 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? No 95¢ 92¢ $64 $61 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? No 95¢ 99¢ $56 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? No 92¢ 82¢ $55 $49 −$6 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 89¢ 90¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? No 72¢ 44¢ $74 $44 −$29 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? No 89¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20? Jun 19 $51 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $199 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 19 $97 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $83 +$18 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $97 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $95 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 77°F or below on June 20? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +481%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 19? Jun 18 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $46 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $86 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $58 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $61 −$59 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 16 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $61 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 72¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 98¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 90¢ $76 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $31 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $93 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $102 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $101 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $102 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $98 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $14 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.78 · official $775.55 (match) · 1105 history records