Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9303…cc05 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days−$2,567
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$634
sports 33% +$503
crypto 7% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.6% -16.4% 60% 32% -33.7%
≤30d 30 -0.6% -10.1% 63% 40% -10.5%
≤90d 30 -0.6% -10.1% 63% 40% -10.5%
all 30 -0.6% -10.1% 63% 40% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% -10.5%
10% -18.7% 27% -19.1%
15% -26.6% 17% -26.9%
20% -33.8% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$630) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$317 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage14d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $203 −$24 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$29 +29%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $59 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,223 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $906 +$317 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$2 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $630 +$314 +50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $782 −$153 -20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $738 +$46 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $781 −$49 -6%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $65 −$42 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$17 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U Jun 20 $285 +$71 +25%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $2,745 −$2,745 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$8 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $586 −$51 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,832 +$2,425 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $73 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $60 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,223 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,223 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $774 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $132 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $53 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records