Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9307…9da3 sports 66 markets active 11h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (241 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$27,499 (+180%) realized +$27,499 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +172% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +110% what you keep after slip
Net edge+110%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%56W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day241.3pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (241 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+146.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +164.5% +139.3% 52% 40% +26.8%
≤30d 102 +172.3% +146.4% 55% 42% +25.0%
≤90d 102 +172.3% +146.4% 55% 42% +25.0%
all 102 +172.3% +146.4% 55% 42% +25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover241.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +146.4% 42% +25.0%
10% ← realistic here +122.8% 30% +13.0%
15% +101.3% 25% +2.1%
20% +81.5% 21% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +172% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +41% → late +303% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
51.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$78 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27,499
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses56 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 66
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$231
Trades / day241.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 18 $186 +$582 +314%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $88 +$289 +330%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $53 +$528 +990%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $89 +$173 +195%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $19 +$513 +2653%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $76 +$82 +108%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $57 +$441 +768%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $73 +$59 +81%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $196 +$143 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$458 +458%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $268 +$127 +47%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 18 $368 −$568 -154%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $252 −$1,948 -774%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 +$272 +869%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 18 $98 +$1,022 +1041%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playof Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Crashers - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $260 −$129 -50%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Jun 18 $63 +$212 +335%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Jun 18 $57 +$435 +766%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $164 −$82 -50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Sta Jun 18 $23 +$797 +3395%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $14 +$1,116 +7948%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $15 +$86 +574%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $31 +$696 +2219%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 18 $5 −$33 -715%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $58 +$650 +1120%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $43 +$310 +718%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $87 +$13 +15%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $457 −$30 -6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $125 +$28 +23%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $176 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $619 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $202 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $130 −$2 -1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $130 −$4 -3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $156 −$26 -17%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $114 −$14 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $56 +$14 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $80 +$12 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $91 +$13 +14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $470 +$46 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 13¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 16¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $8 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 75¢ $8 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 73¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 27¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 32¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 71¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 41¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 38¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 34¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Team Nemesis 34¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 56¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 21¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 24¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 81¢ $8 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 77¢ $8 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 35¢ $4 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 34¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 32¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 64¢ $6 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 30¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records