Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x930b…47c0
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Dec 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $14 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +1%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 18 $12 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will anyone audibly fart during tariff event on April 2? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $16 $0 -2%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $16 $0 +1%
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday? Mar 21 $16 $0 -1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 03 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% +$2
world 26% $0
politics 15% +$1
crypto 13% +$1
tech 8% −$1
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 20h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 97¢ $2 353d
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? SELL No 98¢ $14 368d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 368d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 368d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 368d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 368d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 368d
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? BUY No 96¢ $14 369d
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $14 369d
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $14 369d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $14 369d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 369d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 369d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 369d
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 369d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
all 33 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $31.93 (match) · 91 history records