Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x930b…0223 sports 722 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,718 (-3%) realized −$7,146 · open −$572
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%423W / 293L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1,516est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$179
14 days−$161
30 days−$2,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,251
other 4% −$2,410
crypto 3% −$824
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +0.5%
≤30d 163 -0.6% -10.1% 62% 62% -14.2%
≤90d 489 -9.2% -17.8% 57% 56% -18.5%
all 716 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 57% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 57% -12.6%
10% -22.4% 51% -21.0%
15% -29.9% 41% -28.6%
20% -36.7% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$311 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized−$7,146
Unrealized−$572
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses423 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,516
Open positions6
Markets (closed)716 / 722
History coverage124d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 80¢ 99¢ $397 $496 +$98 (+25%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-8%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 73¢ 0¢ $397 $0 −$396 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 224 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $203 +$197 +97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $565 +$192 +34%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $251 −$250 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $451 +$109 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $1 +$2 +265%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $69 +$10 +14%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $78 −$77 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $54 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $76 +$14 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $65 +$25 +40%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $77 +$38 +50%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $64 +$13 +20%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $54 +$10 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$92 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $88 −$87 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $201 −$11 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $48 +$13 +27%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $71 +$30 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$89 +89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $45 +$37 +82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $74 +$37 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $75 +$105 +139%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $86 +$22 +26%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $400 14m
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers SELL Julie&cie 100¢ $400 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $400 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 2h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY Julie&cie 50¢ $203 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $757 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $565 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $251 4h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 9¢ $103 5h
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pri BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $559 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 80¢ $451 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 27¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL OG 100¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 66¢ $78 4d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL OG 100¢ $78 4d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 87¢ $69 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 10d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $54 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $79 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $80 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $90 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $90 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 83¢ $76 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $80 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.03 · official $660.35 · 1410 history records