Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x930e…bf0c world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$4
other 17% −$1
politics 13% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 7% -10.2%
all 41 -1.1% -10.5% 24% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage284d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $86 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $28 $0 -0%
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 12 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August? Sep 10 $32 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $1 $0 -9%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $41 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $41 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $21 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $31 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $10 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $41 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $37 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $7 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $41 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $44 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 92¢ $18 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 92¢ $22 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 91¢ $40 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.15 · official $37.15 (match) · 138 history records