Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x930e…872d crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-13%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day138.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$12
sports 2% −$2
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -41.1% -46.7% 30% 19% -30.8%
≤30d 43 -41.1% -46.7% 30% 19% -30.8%
≤90d 43 -41.1% -46.7% 30% 19% -30.8%
all 43 -41.1% -46.7% 30% 19% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.7% 19% -30.8%
10% ← realistic here -51.8% 14% -37.4%
15% -56.5% 12% -43.5%
20% -60.8% 7% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day138.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.24 (match) · 139 history records