Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x930f…d794 world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 66L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4
other 22% −$1
politics 16% −$10
sports 12% +$12
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% +$10
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 27 -3.0% -12.3% 26% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 70 +4.2% -5.8% 23% 3% -10.0%
all 106 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 5% -9.4%
10% -15.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -23.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 66
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage490d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $194 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $53 −$11 -21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +19%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $25 +$2 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $38 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $49 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $21 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $77 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $3 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $36 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $33 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $33 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.00 (match) · 416 history records