Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9311…e731 sports 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$158 (+1%) realized +$496 · open −$338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%196W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$371est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$548
14 days−$53
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$427
crypto 5% −$128
other 1% +$35
world 0% −$29
politics 0% +$31
weather 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 34% -17.2%
≤30d 323 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 323 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 43% -10.2%
all 323 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 43% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 27% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 15% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$496
Unrealized−$338
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses196 / 127
Est. fees paid−$371
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage23d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 55¢ 0¢ $338 $0 −$338 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $115 +$45 +39%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $172 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $49 −$1 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $159 −$147 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $223 +$40 +18%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $223 −$14 -6%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $300 −$88 -29%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $138 +$19 +14%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$31 -67%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $98 +$39 +40%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $253 +$11 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $34 −$12 -35%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $168 +$78 +47%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $103 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $159 +$41 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $148 +$4 +3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $90 +$32 +36%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 13 $36 −$14 -39%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $175 −$175 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $282 −$197 -70%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$29 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $127 −$112 -88%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $531 +$51 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $232 +$56 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $160 +$26 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 +$4 +5%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $197 +$72 +37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $144 +$121 +84%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $216 +$90 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $107 −$33 -30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $285 +$55 +19%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $58 −$3 -5%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $82 −$2 -2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $11 −$2 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $38 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $46 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $56 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $202 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $160 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $39 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 75¢ $76 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 65¢ $169 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $125 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 47¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $25 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $71 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $7 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $5 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ $22 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $16 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $17 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $89 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $4 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $5 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $5 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $263 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $223 11h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $209 11h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $223 12h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL Clutchain 33¢ $129 24h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 52¢ $210 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 1190 history records