Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9311…1bf0 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$300 (+13%) realized +$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 14% +$306
crypto 13% −$3
culture 4% $0
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 25% +28.3%
all 17 +3.0% -6.8% 35% 24% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 24% +2.7%
10% -15.7% 12% -7.1%
15% -23.9% 12% -16.1%
20% -31.3% 12% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$1 · ×56.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.74 per $1 lost it wins $33.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage130d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $4 −$3 -100%
Devils vs. Red Wings Apr 15 $154 +$196 +127%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $212 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 22 $152 +$110 +72%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Mar 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Mar 08 $198 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 05 $193 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $393 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 18 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $42 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $92 17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $91 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 57d
Devils vs. Red Wings BUY Devils 44¢ $154 75d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $212 84d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $212 87d
Hawks vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 58¢ $152 95d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? SELL No 99¢ $99 101d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $99 101d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? BUY No 99¢ $99 102d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $99 102d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 102d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 102d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 103d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $198 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $198 107d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 99¢ $199 108d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 99¢ $198 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $192 111d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $193 112d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $197 117d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 118d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $197 120d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 122d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $196 124d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.38 · official $41.38 (match) · 46 history records