Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9315…16c9 crypto 860 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-0%) realized −$138 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%500W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days−$84
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$39
politics 20% +$103
weather 11% +$134
sports 3% +$13
other 1% −$26
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.9% -14.8% 57% 43% -6.1%
≤30d 514 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 791 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 30% -9.4%
all 853 -3.7% -12.8% 59% 30% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 30% -9.0%
10% -21.2% 28% -17.7%
15% -28.8% 25% -25.7%
20% -35.8% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses500 / 353
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)853 / 860
History coverage110d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 853 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 87¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 58¢ 98¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+70%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $12 $2 −$9 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 87¢ $30 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.67 · official $619.67 (match) · 2444 history records