Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x9317…75d9 crypto 160 markets active 1d ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$51,568 (+90%) realized +$51,568 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +178% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +152% what you keep after slip
Net edge+152%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate90%144W / 16L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$27,325
crypto 32% −$1,868
sports 23% +$17,225
politics 3% +$1,859
tech 2% −$454
finance 2% +$5,103
culture 0% +$2,378
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+151.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 24 -10.5% -19.0% 83% 4% -59.8%
all 160 +178.0% +151.5% 90% 19% +69.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +151.5% 19% +69.3%
10% +127.4% 19% +53.1%
15% +105.5% 18% +38.3%
20% +85.3% 18% +24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +178% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +195% → late +160% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$451 vs −$892 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51,568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses144 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage196d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 19? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 19? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 19? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 11? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 11? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11? May 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 11? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 11? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 29? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 27? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 21? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29? Mar 28 $500 −$399 -80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? Mar 28 $500 −$410 -82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? Mar 28 $1,941 −$1,350 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $417 +$282 +68%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $3 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $3 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aron get engaged on Love is Blind: Sweden: Season 3? Feb 28 $483 +$5,863 +1214%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of Feb 28 $675 +$6,345 +940%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 27? Feb 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 2? Feb 27 $12 +$285 +2300%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on March 2? Feb 27 $764 −$741 -97%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 2? Feb 27 $39 +$1,862 +4800%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 24? Feb 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 19? Feb 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 100¢ $13 28h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19? BUY No 98¢ $1 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 27d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $4 36d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11? BUY No 95¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 36d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 29? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $2 56d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $2 59d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 67d
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 79d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29? SELL Yes 2¢ $101 79d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? SELL Yes 4¢ $90 79d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? SELL Yes 16¢ $592 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? SELL No 60¢ $361 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? SELL No 60¢ $323 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 27? SELL No 60¢ $15 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $518 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $523 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? BUY Yes 21¢ $500 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? BUY Yes 50¢ $900 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records