Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x931f…4477 politics 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 137L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 38% −$19
sports 5% +$28
economics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 121 +0.7% -8.9% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 150 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage122d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $279 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $314 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $928 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $271 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $244 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $225 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $282 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $269 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $304 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $247 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $306 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $266 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $296 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $280 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $246 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $301 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $48 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 6d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 17d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 17d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.99 · official $120.99 (match) · 439 history records