Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x931f…b9d3 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$199
14 days+$199
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$113
other 15% +$5
world 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.8% -16.6% 78% 6% -6.7%
≤30d 18 -7.8% -16.6% 78% 6% -6.7%
≤90d 19 -12.7% -21.0% 74% 5% -6.7%
all 37 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 19% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 19% -10.4%
10% -32.6% 16% -19.0%
15% -39.1% 16% -26.8%
20% -45.1% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$33 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage229d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Karolina Muchova 99¢ 100¢ $792 $798 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $233 +$3 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 24 $685 +$15 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 24 $300 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango Jun 24 $475 +$6 +1%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Cezar Cretu Jun 24 $506 −$6 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens Jun 24 $129 −$4 -3%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $750 +$30 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $704 +$46 +6%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio Jun 23 $93 $0 +0%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Stefan Haita Jun 23 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $392 +$8 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $270 +$23 +9%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $416 +$34 +8%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $380 +$70 +19%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $28 +$1 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $571 +$29 +5%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5 Mar 02 $18 +$17 +93%
Wild vs. Utah Feb 28 $44 +$1 +1%
Jets vs. Ducks Feb 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $22 +$28 +122%
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: O/U 134. Feb 27 $43 +$48 +112%
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Binghamton Bearcats: O/U 142.5 Feb 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Indiana State Sycamores vs. Southern Illinois Salukis: O/U 147.5 Feb 26 $37 +$36 +96%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 142.5 Feb 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 212.5 Feb 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $22 +$48 +223%
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Feb 01 $15 +$6 +41%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Nov 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Open de Moselle: Vitaliy Sachko vs Learner Tien Nov 07 $112 −$112 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Karolina Muchova 100¢ $200 0m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Karolina Muchova 100¢ $300 1m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Karolina Muchova 98¢ $293 16m
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Grigor Dimitrov 93¢ $226 18m
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Grigor Dimitrov 93¢ $5 18m
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Grigor Dimitrov 93¢ $5 18m
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $185 19m
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 91¢ $48 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 98¢ $9 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 98¢ $61 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 98¢ $61 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 98¢ $65 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 98¢ $489 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango BUY Caty McNally 100¢ $80 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $35 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango BUY Caty McNally 98¢ $296 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 42¢ $2 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango BUY Caty McNally 98¢ $98 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango BUY Caty McNally 98¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 43¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 43¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 43¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.00 · official $796.80 (match) · 162 history records