Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9324…1858 politics 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,182 (+1%) realized +$2,181 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%40W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1,585per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$35
14 days−$70
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$153
other 34% +$129
sports 12% +$2,145
culture 3% +$10
world 3% −$15
economics 2% −$6
tech 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +6.0% -4.1% 12% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 105 +5.5% -4.6% 10% 7% -8.5%
all 174 +2.6% -7.2% 23% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 9% -8.8%
10% -16.1% 9% -17.6%
15% -24.2% 8% -25.5%
20% -31.6% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$14 · ×7.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$2,181
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses40 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,585
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $291 $293 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,816 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $882 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $6,366 −$9 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,975 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,835 −$6 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,428 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,829 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,168 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,609 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6,636 −$7 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,073 −$6 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $5,320 −$5 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,609 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $54 +$69 +129%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,105 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $71 +$61 +86%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,597 −$7 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $637 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $724 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,330 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,591 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 25 $49 +$63 +129%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,974 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $49 +$66 +134%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $5,916 −$9 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,800 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $78 +$57 +73%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $2,731 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 28h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $882 4d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,688 4d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,691 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,437 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,440 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,491 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,539 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,541 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,628 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,630 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,469 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,543 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,546 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,517 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,519 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,827 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,829 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,519 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,521 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $291 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,606 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.54 · official $292.54 (match) · 606 history records