Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
93 0x9327…9800 crypto 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+3%) realized +$66 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%105W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$83
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$144
weather 28% +$149
sports 5% +$15
tech 3% +$31
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +6.4% -3.7% 74% 43% -2.7%
≤30d 142 +1.5% -8.2% 74% 39% -7.1%
≤90d 142 +1.5% -8.2% 74% 39% -7.1%
all 142 +1.5% -8.2% 74% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 39% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 25% -16.0%
15% -25.0% 13% -24.1%
20% -32.4% 7% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses105 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $180 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $86 +$14 +17%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 $0 +13%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $86 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 3h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.00 · official $181.00 (match) · 303 history records