Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x932a…9c18 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,033 (-1%) realized −$1,036 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%38W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$61
other 34% −$61
sports 11% −$913
world 5% −$29
economics 3% −$2
crypto 1% +$5
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -1.9% -11.2% 5% 0% -10.8%
all 141 +1.2% -8.5% 27% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 11% -10.4%
10% -17.2% 9% -18.9%
15% -25.2% 9% -26.8%
20% -32.6% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,244) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized−$1,036
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses38 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage149d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $742 $745 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $1,833 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $300 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,951 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,020 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,493 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,073 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,000 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,539 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $519 +$2 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,748 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,165 −$6 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,403 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $773 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,307 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $3,379 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $898 +$3 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $559 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,391 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,811 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,974 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,989 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,904 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,425 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,052 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $240 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $240 3h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 5h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 7h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 27h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 29h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $231 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $232 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $301 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $414 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $415 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $271 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $271 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $742 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,208 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,392 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,394 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,202 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,204 16d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,205 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,207 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,212 22d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,214 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.05 · official $745.05 (match) · 430 history records