Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
93 0x932a…9ab8 other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$18
other 40% −$9
sports 7% −$2
finance 7% $0
crypto 5% −$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,132) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage80d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,189 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,154 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,132 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $724 −$9 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,526 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 17 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $797 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Marciele Albuquerque win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Mar 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,170 6m
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $24 15m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 25m
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $154 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $805 2h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $323 2h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,129 2h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,153 21h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,139 21h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 22h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 22h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 22h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 22h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,131 22h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 22h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,132 23h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 36h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 36h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.92 · official $53.92 (match) · 106 history records