Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x932b…a773 weather 816 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-1%) realized −$64 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%417W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day50.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$132
14 days−$241
30 days−$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$149
other 1% −$42
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -50.9% -55.5% 18% 18% -55.7%
≤30d 411 -10.4% -18.9% 52% 50% -18.1%
≤90d 811 +3.5% -6.3% 51% 50% -12.1%
all 811 +3.5% -6.3% 51% 50% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 50% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 41% -20.5%
15% -23.5% 29% -28.2%
20% -31.0% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses417 / 394
Open positions5
Markets (closed)811 / 816
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $46 $34 −$12 (-27%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $14 +$19 +137%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$26 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$36 +245%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 05 $26 +$13 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $42 +$23 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $11 +$6 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $14 +$9 +63%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$16 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$18 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$14 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$6 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $28 +$15 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 +$8 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$17 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $13 +$6 +47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 04 $13 +$8 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.82 · official $57.82 (match) · 3297 history records