Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
93 0x932c…4635 world 8 markets active 8h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$9,885per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×20.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.36 per $1 lost it wins $40.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9,885
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $14,661 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $5,866 $0 +0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $14,637 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $7,333 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $7,302 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14,632 $0 +0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $7,328 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $7,319 +$15 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,323 7h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,323 7h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,338 7h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,338 7h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5,866 7h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,866 7h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,308 7h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7,308 7h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,328 7h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7,328 7h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $102 7h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 7h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7,211 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 7h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7,333 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7,297 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7,302 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,311 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7,311 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,321 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7,321 8h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $415 8h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $6,913 8h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $7,328 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7,308 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7,319 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records