Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x932f…fe5e world 855 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$243 (-2%) realized −$252 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate76%608W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$29
14 days+$23
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$128
crypto 24% −$27
other 4% +$27
tech 3% −$3
politics 2% +$8
sports 1% −$4
culture 1% +$5
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +9.7% -0.7% 84% 48% +0.4%
≤30d 104 -1.4% -10.8% 70% 31% -8.4%
≤90d 276 -0.7% -10.2% 78% 15% -7.9%
all 801 +0.7% -8.9% 76% 17% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 17% -10.4%
10% -17.6% 10% -19.0%
15% -25.6% 6% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses608 / 193
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)801 / 855
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 92¢ 94¢ $322 $326 +$4 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $237 $241 +$4 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 86¢ 88¢ $124 $126 +$2 (+2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 66¢ 80¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 96¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 97¢ 78¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $275 +$4 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $4 31m
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 39m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $100 4h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 82¢ $3 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,083.56 · official $1,083.57 (match) · 3500 history records