Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9330…56b0 other 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-8%) realized −$52 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%28W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$57
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$43
other 13% −$10
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -15.0% -23.1% 31% 27% -20.9%
≤30d 99 -18.5% -26.2% 28% 25% -21.8%
≤90d 99 -18.5% -26.2% 28% 25% -21.8%
all 99 -18.5% -26.2% 28% 25% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 25% -21.8%
10% -33.3% 21% -29.3%
15% -39.7% 19% -36.1%
20% -45.6% 14% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses28 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 0¢ 51¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$2 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$5 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -89%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$9 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $46 −$32 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$13 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -29%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$8 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$8 +39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$15 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $3 $0 -10%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 $0 -30%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +440%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 25 $1 +$9 +869%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $18 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.08 · official $10.08 (match) · 208 history records