Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9330…b993 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$451 (-23%) realized −$333 · open −$118
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$452
7 days−$646
14 days−$453
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$475
other 27% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -32.4% -38.8% 31% 31% -43.7%
≤30d 33 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 39% -32.5%
≤90d 33 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 39% -32.5%
all 33 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 39% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 39% -32.5%
10% -23.0% 39% -38.9%
15% -30.4% 36% -44.8%
20% -37.2% 30% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$52 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$333
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 18¢ $80 $35 −$45 (-56%)
Spread: England (-3.5) England 21¢ $74 $23 −$51 (-69%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 29¢ 12¢ $39 $17 −$22 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $90 −$89 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $43 +$48 +112%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $47 +$18 +39%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $77 +$52 +67%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$74 +146%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Paul Izzo: 4+ saves Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $52 −$19 -37%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 −$25 -68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $289 −$73 -25%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $68 +$84 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $20 +$8 +41%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 +$36 +172%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$153 +494%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$25 +165%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $40 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $82 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $75 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $92 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $19 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $23 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $11 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $16 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $65 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $129 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $47 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $77 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $43 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $51 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $56 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $29 19h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 28¢ $21 19h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 60¢ $50 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $51 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway $31 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 43¢ $51 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $51 39h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $26 39h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye $12 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.72 · official $74.72 (match) · 101 history records