Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x9334…3279 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$376 (-20%) realized −$374 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$540
14 days−$483
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$575
tech 27% +$54
other 3% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.8% -31.0% 50% 50% -46.2%
≤30d 7 -18.7% -26.4% 57% 57% -33.7%
≤90d 7 -18.7% -26.4% 57% 57% -33.7%
all 7 -18.7% -26.4% 57% 57% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 57% -33.7%
10% -33.5% 29% -40.0%
15% -39.9% 29% -45.8%
20% -45.8% 29% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$228 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$374
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $61 +$48 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$37 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $590 −$581 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $535 +$57 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $478 +$57 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $61 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $590 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $592 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $535 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 89¢ $478 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.50 · official $27.50 (match) · 12 history records