Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9337…4a6d
other · 115 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$212 +68%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$195 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$152
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions39
Markets (closed)76 / 115
History coverage155d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit32%
Chart Positions 39 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$42
14 days+$43
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 2¢ 100¢ $1 $47 +$46 (+4633%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+211%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-63%)
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 10 $1 +$46 +4417%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +200%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $3 +$197 +6567%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$193
politics 11% −$10
culture 7% +$18
tech 7% +$31
world 5% −$14
sports 3% −$2
crypto 2% −$6
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 6¢ $1 4d
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 8¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +320.0% +280.0% 20% 20% +280.0%
≤30d 48 -6.3% -15.2% 6% 6% +40.6%
≤90d 48 -6.3% -15.2% 6% 6% +40.6%
all 76 -28.5% -35.3% 8% 8% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 8% +3.7%
10% -41.5% 8% -6.3%
15% -47.2% 8% -15.3%
20% -52.3% 8% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.11 · official $152.12 (match) · 171 history records