Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

93 0x933a…8a61 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$824 (+189%) realized +$860 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +340% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +298% what you keep after slip

Net edge+298%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+298.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	+339.9%	+298.0%	100%	100%	+241.7%
all	2	+339.9%	+298.0%	100%	100%	+241.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+298.0%	100%	+241.7%
10%	+260.0%	100%	+209.0%
15%	+225.2%	100%	+179.1%
20%	+193.3%	100%	+151.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +278% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +340% · $-wt +278% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$426 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized+$860

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage87d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	31¢	28¢	$98	$90	−$8 (-8%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$28	$0	−$28 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Apr 18	$246	+$581	+236%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Apr 10	$61	+$271	+444%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	31¢	$100	1h
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$28	65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL Yes	37¢	$826	72d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	SELL Yes	22¢	$332	80d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$61	86d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY Yes	11¢	$246	86d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.37 · official $90.40 (match) · 6 history records