Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x933d…dd8e world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3
other 31% +$9
sports 5% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.2%
all 32 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 6% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 6% -6.7%
10% -15.4% 6% -15.6%
15% -23.6% 6% -23.8%
20% -31.1% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.21 per $1 lost it wins $6.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage476d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $85 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $23 −$1 -3%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 21 $25 −$1 -3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12? Mar 14 $13 $0 +1%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $24 +$13 +55%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4? Mar 06 $12 +$13 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $49 44m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $48 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $47 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $37 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $43 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $29 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records