Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x933e…901f crypto 777 markets active 16h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,517 (-37%) realized −$2,517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%133W / 626L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$1,545
14 days−$1,545
30 days−$1,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$899
other 25% −$1,304
economics 4% −$251
sports 4% +$41
world 3% −$127
politics 0% +$11
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +5.3% -4.7% 34% 34% -52.7%
≤30d 125 +5.3% -4.7% 34% 34% -52.7%
≤90d 149 -8.4% -17.1% 30% 30% -54.0%
all 759 -24.1% -31.3% 18% 17% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 17% -48.8%
10% -37.9% 17% -53.7%
15% -43.9% 16% -58.1%
20% -49.4% 16% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses133 / 626
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)759 / 777
History coverage192d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 759 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$15 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$11 +341%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $188 −$114 -61%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$18 +115%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$20 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$22 +102%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$30 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$173 +274%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$60 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$64 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$53 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$44 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $16 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $14 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2441 history records