Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x933f…1540 sports 88 markets active 6h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,411 (-2%) realized −$9,411 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%53W / 35L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,623per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1,220est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,656
7 days+$8,511
14 days+$11,770
30 days+$15,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% +$25,548
crypto 23% +$972
other 20% −$42,771
finance 18% +$4,320
politics 10% −$1,352
world 4% +$2,090
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +21.0% +9.4% 73% 65% +8.5%
≤30d 29 +21.0% +9.5% 72% 66% +18.1%
≤90d 60 +2.7% -7.1% 65% 45% +1.1%
all 88 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 39% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 39% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 30% -19.8%
15% -25.3% 25% -27.5%
20% -32.7% 18% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$9,935) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,306 vs −$2,298 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses53 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,220
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage657d
Avg bet$6,623
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $887 +$460 +52%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $575 +$173 +30%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $204 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $674 +$269 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 23 $466 −$466 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3,154 −$3,154 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $873 +$788 +90%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $505 −$505 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $991 +$372 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $972 +$484 +50%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $2,267 −$1,295 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $249 +$362 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $434 −$29 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $181 +$97 +53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,012 +$702 +69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,873 +$1,326 +71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4,488 +$4,386 +98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $3,378 +$1,121 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2,573 +$34 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$100 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,930 +$169 +9%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $726 +$604 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,186 +$540 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12,321 +$2,119 +17%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,787 +$3,259 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,992 +$3,937 +79%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1,280 +$1 +0%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 06 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? May 06 $3 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 06 $4,540 +$320 +7%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 05 $904 +$164 +18%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 05 $3,900 −$664 -17%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 05 $737 +$37 +5%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 05 $68 $0 -0%
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 05 $29 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 04 $7,702 +$325 +4%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 May 03 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) May 03 $28,828 +$2,761 +10%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 01 $41,619 +$464 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $1,655 +$30 +2%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $988 +$666 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $22,833 +$533 +2%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 27 $993 +$288 +29%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $8,267 +$6,202 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $902 −$902 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $2,817 −$2,817 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $887 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 76¢ $575 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $204 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $183 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $204 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $674 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $488 27h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY No 67¢ $505 33h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $373 35h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,363 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $991 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $466 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,457 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $972 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $972 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $611 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $249 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $249 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $156 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 32¢ $156 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $277 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $278 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $181 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,656 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $101 3d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3,154 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $860 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $1,012 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,012 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records