Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

93 0x9340…ae1d sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,928 (+1%) realized +$2,258 · open −$330

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate31%9W / 20L

Whale WR38%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4,859per market

Trades / day13.7pace

Fees−$3,274est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)+10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+25.9%	+13.9%	32%	29%	+12.9%
≤30d	29	+21.6%	+10.0%	31%	28%	+3.5%
≤90d	29	+21.6%	+10.0%	31%	28%	+3.5%
all	29	+21.6%	+10.0%	31%	28%	+3.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.7 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+10.0%	28%	+3.5%
10% ← realistic here	-0.5%	28%	-6.4%
15%	-10.2%	21%	-15.4%
20%	-19.0%	21%	-23.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 38% (≥$8,059) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +34% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7,317 vs −$2,403 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.37 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized+$2,258

Unrealized−$330

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses9 / 20

Whale WR (big bets)38%

Est. fees paid−$3,274

Open positions1

Markets (closed)29 / 30

History coverage7d

Avg bet$4,859

Trades / day13.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	Tunisia	1¢	0¢	$352	$22	−$330 (-94%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$3,078	+$3,769	+122%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 26	$12,308	−$672	-6%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$10,195	+$18,082	+177%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$9,191	−$320	-4%
Tunisia leading at halftime?	Jun 25	$925	+$20	+2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5,144	−$145	-3%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$2,052	−$426	-21%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$4,078	−$382	-9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$2,043	−$692	-34%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 24	$4,096	−$507	-12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$10,153	+$10,234	+101%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$3,079	−$2,980	-97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$5,134	−$832	-16%
Jordan leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$2,052	−$653	-32%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5)	Jun 23	$2,049	−$129	-6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$8,163	+$16,674	+204%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$14,939	−$6,668	-45%
Austria leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$2,053	−$2,000	-97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$6,121	−$6,121	-100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)	Jun 22	$2,049	−$1,860	-91%
New Zealand leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$2,051	+$11,269	+549%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$4,109	+$992	+24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$2,059	+$577	+28%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 22	$1,024	+$4,239	+414%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$3,062	−$198	-6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2,054	−$2,000	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$8,260	−$8,059	-98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$2,050	−$1,798	-88%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$11,835	−$11,615	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	46¢	$1,736	29m
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	3¢	$1,182	41m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$28,277	41m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	27¢	$5,111	44m
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	27¢	$3,149	46m
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	28¢	$4,306	47m
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	12¢	$5,131	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	13¢	$3,078	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$10,195	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	13¢	$3,078	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	27¢	$2,759	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3,064	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	14¢	$2,998	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	18¢	$2,049	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	18¢	$2,049	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	31¢	$1,575	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	31¢	$2,758	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	31¢	$1,779	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$2	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$144	2h
Tunisia leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	6¢	$698	2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	4¢	$4,999	2h
Tunisia leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	7¢	$247	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$1	2h
Tunisia leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	7¢	$514	2h
Tunisia leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$0	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$0	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$0	2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	1¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.01 · official $22.01 (match) · 108 history records