Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9349…0486 other 713 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-0%) realized −$448 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%140W / 560L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$32
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$163
other 30% −$88
economics 9% −$21
crypto 4% −$39
world 2% −$2
sports 2% −$64
tech 2% −$8
culture 1% −$54
finance 1% +$30
weather 0% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.9% -3.3% 9% 9% -9.6%
≤30d 84 +7.8% -2.4% 13% 13% -9.5%
≤90d 337 +2.3% -7.4% 7% 4% -9.6%
all 700 -3.1% -12.4% 20% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.9%
10% -20.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses140 / 560
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)700 / 713
History coverage158d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $182 $182 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $177 $177 −$0 (-0%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $154 $154 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-72%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-75%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 17 $658 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $704 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $845 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $526 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $514 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $35 +$10 +29%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $710 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $796 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 13 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $937 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $942 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $906 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $931 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $843 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $978 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $974 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $876 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $867 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $154 10m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 11m
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 12m
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $166 14m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $10 14m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $167 14m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 14m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $167 20h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 20h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $166 20h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $159 20h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 20h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $159 44h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 44h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 44h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $158 44h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 44h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 44h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $158 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.18 · official $545.06 (match) · 3124 history records