Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x934a…3a2f sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-57%) realized −$49 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$87
sports 24% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -50.6% -55.3% 14% 14% -83.5%
≤30d 7 -50.6% -55.3% 14% 14% -83.5%
≤90d 7 -50.6% -55.3% 14% 14% -83.5%
all 7 -50.6% -55.3% 14% 14% -83.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 14% -83.5%
10% -59.6% 14% -85.1%
15% -63.5% 14% -86.5%
20% -67.1% 14% -87.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $3 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $4 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 2¢ $1 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 2h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 16 history records