Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x934c…cd38 world 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,809 (+1%) realized +$1,809 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%96W / 106L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,162per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 165d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$5,962
crypto 3% −$482
finance 2% +$1,534
other 1% −$644
sports 1% −$1,244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +81.5% +64.2% 100% 100% +64.2%
≤30d 19 -7.8% -16.5% 68% 42% -23.6%
≤90d 91 +15.9% +4.9% 55% 43% -9.1%
all 202 -1.0% -10.4% 48% 29% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 29% -7.5%
10% -19.0% 20% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.8% 16% -24.5%
20% -34.0% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$858) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$628 vs −$525 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,809
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses96 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage165d ⚠
Avg bet$1,162
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$84 +82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $24 +$12 +48%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $384 +$22 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,474 −$105 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $626 −$626 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,215 +$307 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $840 +$160 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,663 +$546 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $63 −$61 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $12,936 −$8,373 -65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $800 +$188 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $2,186 +$441 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $1,516 +$145 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $183 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $900 +$100 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $6,163 +$529 +9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 23 $1,310 −$1,112 -85%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2,940 +$1,880 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $17,424 −$5,218 -30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 04 $973 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 04 $273 +$145 +53%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 04 $1,307 +$303 +23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 04 $901 +$1,777 +197%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? May 04 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 03 $4,326 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 02 $1,790 +$50 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $6,356 +$1,990 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,851 +$3,125 +169%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,348 +$524 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 29 $1,300 −$20 -2%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 28? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 28 $467 −$435 -93%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $487 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 24? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $586 +$32 +6%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $422 +$65 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $5,342 +$3,148 +59%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 23 $210 −$6 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $330 +$270 +82%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $158 −$18 -11%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 21 $500 −$2 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $13 +$2 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $179 −$28 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $30 −$16 -55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,194 +$194 +16%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 19 $100 −$28 -27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 11 $952 −$187 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 1m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $27 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $14 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $13 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $23 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $115 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $13 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $15 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 23¢ $185 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 30¢ $150 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 19¢ $44 13d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 18¢ $190 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $61 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 30¢ $119 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 36¢ $507 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,308 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $158 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,042 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $262 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 10¢ $20 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 10¢ $73 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 10¢ $7 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $4,396 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $776 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $1,946 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $1,264 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $988 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records