Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x934d…f700 other 53 markets active 3h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$98 (+6%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate80%40W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$90
politics 19% +$46
world 11% +$4
tech 11% +$12
sports 6% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +87.6% +69.7% 58% 46% -7.0%
≤30d 24 +87.6% +69.7% 58% 46% -7.0%
≤90d 24 +87.6% +69.7% 58% 46% -7.0%
all 50 +46.1% +32.2% 80% 32% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.2% 32% -4.0%
10% +19.5% 20% -13.2%
15% +8.0% 18% -21.6%
20% -2.6% 16% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +84% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses40 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage595d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$103 +1469%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$10 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$10 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 04 $30 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $4 +$1 +15%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $20 +$1 +4%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $175 +$7 +4%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Josh Allen be the Top Fantasy Quarterback of the 2025-26 NFL Regu Jan 06 $4 $0 +5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 04 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 04 $81 +$1 +2%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 04 $82 +$1 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Dec 30 $50 +$3 +5%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 18 $7 $0 +5%
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Dec 04 $1 $0 +24%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $112 +$11 +10%
US bank failure by November 30? Dec 01 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Nov 11 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race? Apr 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 18 $95 +$4 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $72 +$37 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.16 · official $13.16 (match) · 113 history records