Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x934d…3b7c sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-9%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -20.8%
≤30d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -20.8%
≤90d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -20.8%
all 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -20.8%
10% -31.1% 38% -28.4%
15% -37.8% 38% -35.3%
20% -43.9% 38% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 55¢ 55¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 45¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $17 +$20 +119%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $70 −$39 -56%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $43 +$44 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $7 29m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $42 58m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $20 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $14 45h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $15 45h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $17 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $15 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $8 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $55 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $25 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $20 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $23 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.97 · official $66.97 (match) · 21 history records