Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x934e…f045 other 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,841 (-21%) realized −$5,827 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%49W / 84L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$20
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$7,497
sports 1% −$172
world 1% +$92
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 38% -34.6%
≤30d 28 -26.3% -33.4% 36% 32% -31.8%
≤90d 133 -36.7% -42.8% 37% 34% -31.8%
all 133 -36.7% -42.8% 37% 34% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 34% -31.8%
10% -48.2% 26% -38.3%
15% -53.2% 17% -44.3%
20% -57.8% 10% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$139 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$5,827
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses49 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage72d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $122 $108 −$14 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +42%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 −$2 -23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$9 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$22 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $40 −$29 -74%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $7 −$3 -43%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $7 +$4 +64%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $73 −$69 -93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $56 +$18 +32%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $17 −$16 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $10 −$9 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $34 +$22 +65%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 24 $55 −$21 -38%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $412 −$401 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $31 −$10 -33%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $278 +$166 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $95 −$94 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $84 +$12 +14%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $490 −$311 -64%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $329 +$65 +20%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $102 −$77 -75%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $76 +$14 +18%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $349 +$46 +13%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $312 +$36 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $107 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 55¢ $132 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $135 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 70¢ $135 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $109 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 31¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $42 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $22 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.16 · official $108.18 (match) · 281 history records