Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9351…9e4d
world · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$159,760 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,211,196 · open +$4,045
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,578,434
Realized+$1,211,196
Unrealized+$4,045
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses42 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)46 / 75
History coverage20d
Avg bet$66,258
Trades / day172.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 29 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,307
7 days−$4,546
14 days+$1,181,476
30 days+$1,211,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $197,470 $199,500 +$2,030 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $198,772 $198,900 +$128 (+0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $121,474 $121,609 +$135 (+0%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $78,150 $78,236 +$86 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 99¢ 98¢ $69,274 $68,950 −$324 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $67,749 $68,565 +$816 (+1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $68,179 $68,495 +$316 (+0%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $68,264 $67,585 −$679 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $68,005 $67,515 −$490 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 95¢ $68,539 $66,535 −$2,004 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $66,411 $65,800 −$611 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $65,595 $65,205 −$390 (-1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $61,401 $62,074 +$673 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $59,494 $59,756 +$262 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $57,000 $59,010 +$2,010 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $46,379 $47,006 +$628 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $43,150 $43,310 +$161 (+0%)
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $38,178 $38,586 +$408 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $37,762 $38,002 +$239 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $35,703 $35,906 +$202 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $22,632 $22,727 +$94 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $16,053 $16,209 +$156 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $7,685 $7,787 +$103 (+1%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,489 $3,555 +$65 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,533 $2,541 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $57,880 −$9,187 -16%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $52,182 +$175 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $112,732 +$488 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $89,454 +$359 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $156,853 +$884 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $85,503 +$563 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $29,891 +$141 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $59,600 +$437 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $59,822 +$505 +1%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3,505 −$20 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $68,745 +$344 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,090 +$3 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 12 $287 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $7,881 +$26 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $16,226 +$99 +1%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $4,977 +$2 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $3,601 +$7 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $56,120 +$236 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $59,608 +$392 +1%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 06 $9,828 +$26 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1,708 +$2 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $59,507 +$4,809 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 05 $74,357 +$421 +1%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 04 $48,304 +$11,696 +24%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $42,773 +$17,227 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $927,883 +$2,421 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $59,120 +$820 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $36,400 +$23 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $60,536 +$298,690 +493%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $43,759 +$98 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $300,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37,610 +$75 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $75,292 +$48,861 +65%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32,666 +$339,905 +1040%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $33,197 +$38,588 +116%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $325 +$1,881 +578%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May Jun 01 $954 +$19,609 +2056%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,192 +$49,311 +2249%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $166,856 +$50,548 +30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $45,865 +$300,929 +656%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $4,532 +$83 +2%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 May 31 $38 +$2,184 +5810%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 31 $60 +$3,763 +6241%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 30 $725 +$3,136 +432%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 29 $354 +$19,968 +5644%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5,291 +$670 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$1,089,340
crypto 19% +$22,030
tech 16% +$4,765
politics 11% +$74,821
other 10% +$23,995
economics 9% +$270
finance 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 9m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $63 9m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 29m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $667 38m
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $166 39m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $37 47m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $151 47m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $33 48m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $120 48m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 51m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $65 53m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $16 54m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $83 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $812 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $588 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $149 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $77 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $97 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $99 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+255.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 46 +293.3% +255.9% 91% 35% +26.4%
≤90d 46 +293.3% +255.9% 91% 35% +26.4%
all 46 +293.3% +255.9% 91% 35% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover172.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +255.9% 35% +26.4%
10% +221.8% 33% +14.3%
15% ← realistic here +190.7% 28% +3.2%
20% +162.2% 26% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,578,433.72 · official $1,578,433.72 (match) · 3500 history records