Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
93 0x9356…e52b sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11,322 (-14%) realized −$11,286 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,915per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$939est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,561
7 days−$12,588
14 days−$12,588
30 days−$12,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$11,482
politics 13% +$877
other 1% −$1,141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -23.6% -30.9% 39% 39% -26.6%
≤30d 18 -23.6% -30.9% 39% 39% -26.6%
≤90d 18 -23.6% -30.9% 39% 39% -26.6%
all 19 -21.9% -29.4% 42% 37% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 37% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 32% -30.7%
15% -42.3% 32% -37.4%
20% -48.0% 32% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$5,088) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,329 vs −$3,485 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$964
Realized−$11,286
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$939
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage598d
Avg bet$3,915
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1,000 $964 −$36 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $946 −$941 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $2,572 −$2,526 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $3,039 +$2,263 +74%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $3,067 −$3,000 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $5,082 −$5,000 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $5,088 −$5,000 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $2,032 +$2,315 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5,088 +$7,004 +138%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5,095 −$5,000 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $8,132 −$8,000 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $8,123 +$8,753 +108%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,201 +$3,799 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,318 −$4,318 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,964 −$2,954 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6,909 +$1,091 +16%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $1,413 −$1,400 -99%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $9,998 +$877 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 82¢ $946 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $1,010 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $948 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $606 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $3,039 34h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $3,067 35h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5,082 35h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $5,088 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $4,076 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,035 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $2,035 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,016 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5,082 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $815 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,032 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $74 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $81 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $238 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,077 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,032 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5,091 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2,201 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $964.29 · official $964.29 (match) · 58 history records