Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9357…1e38 crypto 516 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-4%) realized −$122 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%259W / 251L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$163
14 days−$215
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$236
sports 5% +$10
weather 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -9.1% -17.8% 53% 34% -25.2%
≤30d 503 -13.1% -21.4% 51% 35% -18.2%
≤90d 503 -13.1% -21.4% 51% 35% -18.2%
all 510 -13.2% -21.5% 51% 35% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 35% -18.2%
10% -29.0% 29% -26.0%
15% -35.8% 16% -33.2%
20% -42.1% 7% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses259 / 251
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)510 / 516
History coverage159d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 60¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 39¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+153%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 83¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Infinite 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 59¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Flame Team 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $14 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $11 +$2 +15%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$4 -57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $16 +$10 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $72 −$19 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $107 −$29 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $97 −$35 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $72 −$31 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$10 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $70 −$33 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 29¢ $1 12m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 59¢ $1 45m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 83¢ $3 51m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $1 56m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $1 56m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 87¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 80¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 49¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 72¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 30¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 90¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 66¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 82¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 55¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 49¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 52¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 52¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 17¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 55¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 69¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 49¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.88 · official $16.10 (match) · 1925 history records