Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x9359…6aac sports 576 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$749 (-0%) realized −$1,321 · open +$572
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%410W / 142L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$573est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$949
other 35% +$6,999
world 3% −$1,767
politics 2% +$1,394
crypto 0% +$395
finance 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -57.1% -61.2% 22% 21% -56.3%
≤30d 90 -38.8% -44.6% 40% 27% -37.4%
≤90d 258 +0.8% -8.8% 69% 44% -12.4%
all 552 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 38% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 38% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 30% -16.7%
15% -23.2% 21% -24.7%
20% -30.7% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$544) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$256 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$40,908
Realized−$1,321
Unrealized+$572
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses410 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$573
Open positions24
Markets (closed)552 / 576
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$586
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $8,503 $9,816 +$1,313 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7,096 $6,039 −$1,058 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5,290 $5,924 +$634 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $2,885 $4,274 +$1,389 (+48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $3,542 $2,194 −$1,349 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3,062 $2,081 −$981 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1,562 $1,695 +$133 (+8%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $1,430 $1,630 +$200 (+14%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 31¢ $728 $930 +$202 (+28%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 94¢ $691 $915 +$224 (+32%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $813 $891 +$78 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $425 $650 +$225 (+53%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $355 $499 +$144 (+40%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $455 $478 +$23 (+5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $403 $398 −$5 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $426 $393 −$33 (-8%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 81¢ 71¢ $446 $390 −$55 (-12%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 79¢ 76¢ $395 $382 −$12 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 44¢ $467 $334 −$134 (-29%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $430 $326 −$104 (-24%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 56¢ $365 $282 −$83 (-23%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $199 $142 −$58 (-29%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 28¢ $260 $137 −$122 (-47%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 21¢ 22¢ $105 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $335 +$165 +49%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 +$159 +156%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $225 +$75 +33%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $99 +$91 +92%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $104 +$296 +285%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $285 +$365 +128%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $345 +$155 +45%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $600 −$390 -65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $810 −$547 -68%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $836 −$707 -85%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $830 −$819 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $365 −$355 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $180 −$179 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $263 −$261 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $272 −$164 -60%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Katie Boulter vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Blinkova (+1.5) Jun 21 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-16? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 21 $156 −$156 -100%
Sinner vs. Ofner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $218 −$218 -100%
Golubic vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $220 −$220 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5) Jun 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 21 $158 −$65 -41%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Jun 21 $234 −$234 -100%
Viktorija Golubic vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $317 −$317 -100%
Golubic vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $317 −$317 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 21 $212 −$212 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $304 −$304 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 21 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $407 −$407 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $230 43m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $455 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,418 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $394 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $564 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $105 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $209 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $397 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $302 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $99 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $261 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $250 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $185 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $100 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $38 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $335 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $116 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,907.99 · official $40,908.24 (match) · 3500 history records