Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x935a…9146 other 77 markets active 4d ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$763 (-19%) realized −$763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%12W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$928
14 days−$601
30 days−$601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,224
sports 38% +$642
crypto 10% −$193
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -32.3% -38.7% 5% 5% -79.8%
≤30d 59 -6.7% -15.6% 12% 12% -28.0%
≤90d 59 -6.7% -15.6% 12% 12% -28.0%
all 77 -7.9% -16.7% 16% 16% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 16% -30.7%
10% -24.7% 16% -37.3%
15% -31.9% 16% -43.4%
20% -38.6% 16% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$43 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses12 / 65
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage142d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $207 −$201 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $42 −$41 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$130 +2524%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 +$146 +711%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$275 +269%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $3 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records