Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x935c…19e7 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$14
other 22% −$9
politics 22% −$1
sports 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.3% -12.5% 6% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 32 -4.1% -13.3% 3% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 32 -4.1% -13.3% 3% 0% -12.0%
all 32 -4.1% -13.3% 3% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -12.0%
10% -21.6% 0% -20.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -28.1%
20% -36.1% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage11d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 20 $85 $0 +0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 20 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 14 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -10%
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Joventut vs. Valencia: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $17 −$7 -43%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bonzi Jun 09 $46 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $72 1h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? BUY No 90¢ $72 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $8 6h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 73¢ $11 6h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $24 7h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $26 7h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $13 7h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $22 7h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 77¢ $12 7h
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 58¢ $5 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $12 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $8 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $20 9h
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $5 9h
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $14 9h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $4 9h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $9 9h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $13 9h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 13h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 13h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 SELL No 83¢ $25 5d
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 BUY No 83¢ $25 5d
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $15 5d
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 40¢ $30 5d
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 40¢ $30 5d
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $16 5d
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records