Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x935d…72f4 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$139 (+13%) realized +$146 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$145
other 8% −$11
crypto 5% −$17
world 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +118.3% +97.5% 100% 100% +97.6%
≤30d 2 +118.3% +97.5% 100% 100% +97.6%
≤90d 2 +118.3% +97.5% 100% 100% +97.6%
all 44 +12.9% +2.2% 48% 45% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 45% +7.8%
10% -7.6% 45% -2.5%
15% -16.5% 45% -11.9%
20% -24.7% 41% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)44 / 54
History coverage204d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Karmine Corp 48¢ 43¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 64¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 30¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Panama 11¢ 10¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$43 +85%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$77 +152%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-13.5) Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs T1 (BO3) Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Lions (-3.5) Dec 09 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 04 $20 +$12 +61%
Spread: Barcelona (-1.5) Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11PM ET Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) Dec 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $20 +$11 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $20 +$13 +67%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $12 +$24 +203%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Dec 02 $10 +$5 +47%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 02 $25 +$81 +322%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Dec 02 $15 +$17 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10PM ET Dec 02 $4 +$31 +808%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on December 1? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Dec 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Dec 02 $17 +$16 +96%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TYLOO (BO3) Dec 02 $30 +$38 +127%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 01 $10 +$7 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 01 $13 +$12 +89%
Broncos vs. Commanders Dec 01 $15 +$7 +46%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Dec 01 $15 +$9 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1) Dec 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Dec 01 $20 +$37 +185%
Spread: Bills (-1.5) Dec 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26? Nov 30 $20 +$21 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $17 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $41 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 11¢ $14 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $23 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 64¢ $40 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $94 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $128 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $51 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 9h
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) BUY Cloud9 31¢ $20 190d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Cowboys 12¢ $2 194d
Spread: Lions (-3.5) BUY Cowboys 54¢ $14 195d
Spread: Lions (-3.5) BUY Cowboys 54¢ $14 195d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 196d
Valorant: Fnatic vs T1 (BO3) BUY Fnatic 54¢ $20 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 196d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 196d
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) BUY Raptors 44¢ $0 196d
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) BUY Raptors 44¢ $4 196d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Warriors 52¢ $20 196d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs BUY Grizzlies 35¢ $21 196d
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) BUY Timberwolves 68¢ $20 196d
Spread: Raptors (-5.5) BUY Raptors 50¢ $10 196d
Spread: 76ers (-13.5) BUY Wizards 52¢ $10 196d
Spread: Barcelona (-1.5) BUY Atletico Madrid 68¢ $10 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.74 · official $325.74 (match) · 129 history records