Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x935d…9404 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$126 (-2%) realized −$108 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$581
7 days+$1,295
14 days+$685
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$594
world 8% +$132
sports 1% +$72
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +40.7% +27.3% 53% 53% +25.5%
≤30d 24 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 38% +4.2%
≤90d 24 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 38% +4.2%
all 34 -12.6% -20.9% 32% 32% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 32% +5.6%
10% -28.5% 32% -4.5%
15% -35.4% 32% -13.8%
20% -41.7% 29% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$103 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage121d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $165 +$985 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $606 +$317 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $205 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $210 −$205 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$92 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $607 +$393 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $316 +$165 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $227 −$222 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $274 +$300 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $198 −$195 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $121 +$429 +354%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $165 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $210 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $606 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $607 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $316 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $255 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $227 8d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $274 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $198 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $74 10d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 107d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 108d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 109d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.06 · official $52.06 (match) · 50 history records