Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x935e…d6e4 sports 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52,556 (-4%) realized −$52,589 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate74%195W / 67L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,022per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$365est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56,277
7 days−$56,163
14 days−$56,365
30 days−$56,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$15,992
other 3% −$38
politics 2% +$7,597
finance 0% +$194
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -55.6% -59.8% 40% 0% -68.1%
≤30d 77 -30.2% -36.9% 56% 5% -40.4%
≤90d 170 -16.7% -24.6% 69% 5% -15.9%
all 262 -9.7% -18.3% 74% 6% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 6% -11.4%
10% -26.1% 4% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -33.3% 2% -27.6%
20% -39.8% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$6,228) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$1,046 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,967
Realized−$52,589
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses195 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$365
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 240
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$6,022
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors Simhadri Vizag Lions 98¢ 100¢ $1,934 $1,967 +$33 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Jun 27 $639 −$639 -100%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2025-11-23? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) Jun 27 $835 −$835 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Jun 27 $340 −$340 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 27 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1) Jun 27 $3,682 −$3,682 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3) Jun 27 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Learner Tien vs Rafael Jodar Jun 27 $3,081 −$3,081 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5 Jun 27 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Sangal (BO3) Jun 27 $2,411 −$2,411 -100%
New Zealand ODI Series: New Zealand vs West Indies (Game 2) Jun 27 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 27 $1 −$1,933 -246052%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 27 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-22? Jun 27 $1 −$15 -1920%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 27 $373 −$373 -100%
SA20: Paarl Royals vs Pretoria Capitals (Game 1) Jun 27 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 27 $21,980 −$21,980 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $2,174 −$2,174 -100%
Tulsa vs. Army Jun 27 $3,412 −$3,412 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 27 $0 −$430 -140484%
Minnesota vs. Northwestern Jun 27 $2,612 −$2,643 -101%
Sharks vs. Oilers Jun 27 $1,653 −$1,653 -100%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. UT Arlington Mavericks Jun 27 $5,174 −$5,174 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Jun 27 $226 −$70 -31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $139 +$9 +7%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex Jun 26 $3,098 +$88 +3%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $2,814 +$190 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $651 +$14 +2%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $134 −$43 -32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $3,026 +$17 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $2,947 +$30 +1%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $2,979 +$17 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $129 −$92 -71%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $2,805 +$37 +1%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $225 +$6 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,996 +$30 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $2,180 +$2 +0%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 21 $443 +$18 +4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $702 +$28 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $526 +$5 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $2,430 +$43 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $105 +$7 +7%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 20 $392 +$8 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $2,753 +$127 +5%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $2,720 +$30 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$7 -28%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $1,881 −$306 -16%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $3,002 +$17 +0%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $114 +$33 +29%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $2,072 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 99¢ $178 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 99¢ $558 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 99¢ $36 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 99¢ $221 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 99¢ $37 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 98¢ $97 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 98¢ $98 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 98¢ $53 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 98¢ $18 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 95¢ $45 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 95¢ $50 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 95¢ $10 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 96¢ $96 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 97¢ $206 1h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 97¢ $97 2h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 96¢ $119 2h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Simhadri Vizag Lions 94¢ $16 2h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas SELL Seattle Orcas 60¢ $156 11h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 84¢ $85 11h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 87¢ $52 11h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 87¢ $87 11h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 83¢ $1 11h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $69 18h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $804 18h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $494 18h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $148 18h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $494 18h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $494 18h
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex BUY Northamptonshire 99¢ $197 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 87¢ $96 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,966.56 · official $1,966.56 (match) · 3500 history records