Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9360…03e6
world · 121 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$10,359 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,357 · open +$521
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,607
Realized+$8,357
Unrealized+$521
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses66 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage242d
Avg bet$1,005
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$722
7 days+$1,084
14 days+$2,593
30 days+$6,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $1,660 $2,055 +$395 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $1,520 $1,560 +$40 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $1,380 $1,510 +$130 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $1,006 $817 −$190 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $320 $416 +$96 (+30%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $3,230 +$1,090 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $15,291 −$368 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $256 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $238 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $600 +$350 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $962 +$279 +29%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,338 +$1,270 +29%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $140 −$40 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,862 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? May 28 $527 +$151 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $2,261 +$335 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2,044 +$4 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $670 +$120 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $4,758 +$524 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 24 $1,116 −$14 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,930 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $26,995 +$2,165 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $500 +$10 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $405 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $787 +$115 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $600 +$183 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 11 $154 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $2,234 +$277 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $2,806 −$490 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1,616 +$199 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1,344 −$366 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $1,867 +$237 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2,561 +$1,007 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $3,259 +$19 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 22 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2,720 −$1,263 -46%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $791 +$410 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $180 −$180 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $770 +$230 +30%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $170 +$68 +40%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 15 $1,678 −$150 -9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $1,620 +$353 +22%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $280 +$2 +1%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $659 +$83 +13%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $9 +$9 +100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 09 $83 +$28 +34%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $60 +$74 +122%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $529 −$349 -66%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $112 +$112 +100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $2,360 +$1,168 +50%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $80 +$20 +26%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $77 +$198 +258%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $1,202 +$183 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$5,589
other 7% +$1,005
finance 6% +$1,261
sports 3% +$601
crypto 2% +$638
tech 0% −$88
politics 0% −$117
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,520 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $302 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $135 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $459 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $2,750 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $210 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 19h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $117 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 33% -4.5%
≤30d 22 +6.9% -3.3% 73% 45% -1.5%
≤90d 55 +5.5% -4.5% 67% 51% -2.4%
all 115 -7.7% -16.5% 57% 43% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 43% -2.4%
10% -24.5% 30% -11.7%
15% -31.8% 20% -20.2%
20% -38.5% 15% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,607.49 · official $6,686.99 · 1650 history records