Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9362…d4a4 crypto 218 markets active 5h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-7%) realized −$204 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate39%82W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$115
14 days−$125
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$48
other 24% −$112
politics 23% −$49
crypto 15% −$11
finance 4% $0
culture 2% −$16
tech 2% −$26
sports 1% −$15
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -7.8% -16.5% 7% 2% -14.6%
≤30d 116 -15.6% -23.6% 12% 6% -17.6%
≤90d 116 -15.6% -23.6% 12% 6% -17.6%
all 211 -5.6% -14.6% 39% 19% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 19% -16.2%
10% -22.8% 11% -24.2%
15% -30.2% 7% -31.5%
20% -37.1% 5% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses82 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)211 / 218
History coverage176d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $80 $59 −$21 (-26%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 89¢ 82¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-7%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 22¢ 10¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No 28¢ 6¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $194 −$4 -2%
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections Jun 20 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $80 −$1 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 19 $50 −$1 -3%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $48 −$4 -8%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 19 $13 $0 -4%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 19 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -16%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 18 $86 −$7 -8%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 18 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -11%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $19 $0 -1%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $12 $0 -3%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $0 $0 -10%
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $50 −$23 -45%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $23 −$3 -12%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $77 −$16 -21%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 16 $26 −$17 -64%
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and H Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$3 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $112 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $119 −$6 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $94 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $80 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $43 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 9h
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections SELL Yes 79¢ $67 10h
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 80¢ $68 10h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 74¢ $73 11h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $75 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $80 11h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $79 13h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $80 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $44 14h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $44 14h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $44 15h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $48 15h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $14 16h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 16h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $15 16h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 19h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL No 85¢ $9 21h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 86¢ $9 21h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 82¢ $49 27h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 83¢ $50 27h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $5 33h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $5 33h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 67¢ $49 33h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $0 33h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $50 33h
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.06 · official $241.06 (match) · 664 history records